Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 63%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$166.74

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 31 top traders (65%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down20 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares3,565

Combined PnL+$531.59

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,899

Combined PnL-$364.86

Down — 65%Up — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 63.1¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$73.83	60% 9317-6132 (15449)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 58.3¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$111.02	86% 39944-6718 (46662)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.3¢	$666.69	$1.1K	+$477.31
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.4¢	$366.29	—	-$366.29
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100	Downavg 49.8¢	$404.5	$455.48	+$50.98	68% 33599-15456 (49055)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$226.86	$455.48	+$228.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.6¢	$177.64	—	-$177.64
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 78.3¢	$356.14	$375.59	+$19.45	56% 6794-5289 (12083)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$309.03	$312.15	+$3.12	93% 20154-1617 (21771)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 66.9¢	$269.68	$284.95	+$15.27	54% 9369-7985 (17354)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 68.6¢	$253.54	$362.05	+$108.51	56% 13401-10459 (23860)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 58.7¢	$185.83	$260.75	+$74.93	56% 31413-24251 (55664)
TM tmsd-testARB<$100	Upavg 58¢	$170.23	$157.63	-$12.6	53% 7234-6436 (13670)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.3¢	$58.87	$157.63	+$98.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 58¢	$111.36	—	-$111.36
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 68¢	$140.17	$206.13	+$65.96	57% 12593-9662 (22255)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 67.7¢	$138.17	$204.02	+$65.85	58% 10472-7684 (18156)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$100	$100	+$0	82% 25791-5637 (31428)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$50	$100	+$50
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$50	—	-$50
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 57.8¢	$74.13	$60	+$14.53	58% 6469-4604 (11073)
DE devonpollCTR	Upavg 68.3¢	$127.6	—	-$103.46	52% 15316-14141 (29457)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 64¢	$67.41	—	-$67.41	75% 23276-7607 (30883)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 66.8¢	$45.7	$55.71	+$10.01	75% 22486-7474 (29960)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 49.8¢	$23.33	$27.5	+$4.17	81% 51120-11727 (62847)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 69.4¢	$27.99	$35.21	+$7.22	61% 13569-8539 (22108)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 54¢	$27.1	$50.2	+$23.1	77% 41364-12330 (53694)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 64.2¢	$20.55	$32.03	+$11.48	56% 14781-11800 (26581)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 57.8¢	$13.31	$23.01	+$9.7	62% 18051-11002 (29053)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 69.4¢	$14.99	$21.61	+$6.62	62% 38229-23726 (61955)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 48.6¢	$11.61	$18.02	+$6.4	67% 23185-11428 (34613)
RL RLWG<$100	Downavg 55¢	$11	$19.99	+$9	51% 3533-3400 (6933)
31 3123123121313CTR<$100	Upavg 12.5¢	$62.7	—	-$62.7	55% 632-507 (1139)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$1,137.46

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$73.83

Record

60%

9317-6132 (15449)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,032.97

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$111.02

Record

86%

39944-6718 (46662)

Both legs:

Down$666.6958.3¢+$477.31

Up$366.2949.4¢-$366.29

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$404.5

Value

$455.48

PnL

+$50.98

Record

68%

33599-15456 (49055)

Both legs:

Down$226.8649.8¢+$228.63

Up$177.6442.6¢-$177.64

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$356.14

Value

$375.59

PnL

+$19.45

Record

56%

6794-5289 (12083)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$309.03

Value

$312.15

PnL

+$3.12

Record

93%

20154-1617 (21771)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$269.68

Value

$284.95

PnL

+$15.27

Record

54%

9369-7985 (17354)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$253.54

Value

$362.05

PnL

+$108.51

Record

56%

13401-10459 (23860)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$185.83

Value

$260.75

PnL

+$74.93

Record

56%

31413-24251 (55664)

tmsd-testARB<$100

Invested

$170.23

Value

$157.63

PnL

-$12.6

Record

53%

7234-6436 (13670)

Both legs:

Down$58.8737.3¢+$98.76

Up$111.3658¢-$111.36

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$140.17

Value

$206.13

PnL

+$65.96

Record

57%

12593-9662 (22255)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$138.17

Value

$204.02

PnL

+$65.85

Record

58%

10472-7684 (18156)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$100

Value

$100

PnL

+$0

Record

82%

25791-5637 (31428)

Both legs:

Invested

$74.13

Value

$60

PnL

+$14.53

Record

58%

6469-4604 (11073)

devonpollCTR

Invested

$127.6

Value

—

PnL

-$103.46

Record

52%

15316-14141 (29457)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$67.41

Value

—

PnL

-$67.41

Record

75%

23276-7607 (30883)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$45.7

Value

$55.71

PnL

+$10.01

Record

75%

22486-7474 (29960)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$23.33

Value

$27.5

PnL

+$4.17

Record

81%

51120-11727 (62847)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$27.99

Value

$35.21

PnL

+$7.22

Record

61%

13569-8539 (22108)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$27.1

Value

$50.2

PnL

+$23.1

Record

77%

41364-12330 (53694)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$20.55

Value

$32.03

PnL

+$11.48

Record

56%

14781-11800 (26581)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$13.31

Value

$23.01

PnL

+$9.7

Record

62%

18051-11002 (29053)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$14.99

Value

$21.61

PnL

+$6.62

Record

62%

38229-23726 (61955)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$11.61

Value

$18.02

PnL

+$6.4

Record

67%

23185-11428 (34613)

RLWG<$100

Down

Invested

$11

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$9

Record

51%

3533-3400 (6933)

3123123121313CTR<$100

Invested

$62.7

Value

—

PnL

-$62.7

Record

55%

632-507 (1139)

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 31 top traders (65%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x987fe292...b2c8ad

Slug

btc-updown-15m-1792912500

Traders in this Market

trdyugiolkw

Down — $1.2K

+$73.83

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$111.02

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$50.98

wzbbb

Down — $375.59

+$19.45

hoodquant

Down — $312.15

+$3.12

thesidehustle

Down — $284.95

+$15.27

CrouchPredictions

Down — $362.05

+$108.51

uninformedfloww

Down — $260.75

+$74.93

tmsd-test

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$12.6

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $206.13

+$65.96

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