EC Juventude vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: O/U 4.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 83¢ · $305 held · ended Oct 26

Over18¢Under82¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$305.33

Combined PnL

-$5.71

Smart Money Entry

80.5¢ → 82.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over18%

Under83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$223.15

Total Shares282

Combined PnL-$5.22

Over4 traders

Total Value$9.67

Total Shares55

Combined PnL-$0.48

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 77.7¢	$111.47	$107.75	-$3.72	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Underavg 64¢	$61.63	$72.52	+$10.89	50% 11601-11716 (23317)
└ Under leg	Underavg 64¢	$47.99	$36.37	-$11.62
└ Over leg	Overavg 19.4¢	$13.64	$36.15	+$22.51
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 88¢	$53.68	$53.07	-$0.91	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 81¢	$40.4	$39.4	-$1	49% 18204-18601 (36805)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 88¢	$16.72	$16.53	-$0.19	50% 10210-10096 (20306)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 58¢	$5.8	$6.4	+$0.6	67% 22791-11234 (34025)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$6.77	$6.15	-$0.61	50% 23534-23109 (46643)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 11.6¢	$3.61	$1.43	+$0.22	58% 39668-28654 (68322)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$1.42	$1.42	-$0	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$0.75	$0.66	-$0.09	61% 8819-5730 (14549)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$111.47

Value

$107.75

PnL

-$3.72

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Under

Invested

$61.63

Value

$72.52

PnL

+$10.89

Record

50%

11601-11716 (23317)

Both legs:

Under$47.9964¢-$11.62

Over$13.6419.4¢+$22.51

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$53.68

Value

$53.07

PnL

-$0.91

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$40.4

Value

$39.4

PnL

-$1

Record

49%

18204-18601 (36805)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$16.72

Value

$16.53

PnL

-$0.19

Record

50%

10210-10096 (20306)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$5.8

Value

$6.4

PnL

+$0.6

Record

67%

22791-11234 (34025)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.77

Value

$6.15

PnL

-$0.61

Record

50%

23534-23109 (46643)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.61

Value

$1.43

PnL

+$0.22

Record

58%

39668-28654 (68322)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.42

Value

$1.42

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.66

PnL

-$0.09

Record

61%

8819-5730 (14549)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.