EC Juventude vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe: O/U 1.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 50%
$1.2K
$22.05
97.8¢ → 100¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US User7429 | Overavg 98¢ | $757.54 | $769.61 | +$12.07 | 55% 7895-6404 (14299) |
 poshposh | Overavg 97¢ | $291.87 | $294.68 | +$2.81 | 61% 8819-5730 (14549) |
LO looppau<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $81.92 | $81.96 | +$0.04 | 99% 9989-45 (10034) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Underavg 17¢ | $14.45 | $21.68 | +$7.23 | 50% 23534-23109 (46643) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 26.5¢ | $10.08 | $9.69 | -$0.39 | 59% 43329-29788 (73117) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 25.7¢ | $3.12 | $3.1 | -$0.02 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 72¢ | $2.57 | $2.66 | +$0.09 | 57% 27008-20057 (47065) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 23¢ | $2.07 | $2.3 | +$0.23 | 50% 31780-31415 (63195) |
Invested
$757.54
Value
$769.61
PnL
+$12.07
Record
55%
7895-6404 (14299)
poshposhInvested
$291.87
Value
$294.68
PnL
+$2.81
Record
61%
8819-5730 (14549)
Invested
$81.92
Value
$81.96
PnL
+$0.04
Record
99%
9989-45 (10034)
Invested
$14.45
Value
$21.68
PnL
+$7.23
Record
50%
23534-23109 (46643)
Invested
$10.08
Value
$9.69
PnL
-$0.39
Record
59%
43329-29788 (73117)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.12
Value
$3.1
PnL
-$0.02
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
Invested
$2.57
Value
$2.66
PnL
+$0.09
Record
57%
27008-20057 (47065)
Invested
$2.07
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$0.23
Record
50%
31780-31415 (63195)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.