Spread: EC Juventude (-1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold EC Juventude (50%) · EC Juventude at 98¢ · $824 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
EC Juventude
6
EC Juventude 50%
$824.01
-$49.04
44.3¢ → 97.8¢
+121% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralEC Juventude at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA marketmesh | EC Juventudeavg 39¢ | $355.68 | $332.88 | -$22.8 | 59% 89-63 (152) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Clube Náutico Capibaribeavg 60¢ | $272.6 | $188.96 | +$9.23 | 58% 39668-28654 (68322) |
GO GoalLineGhost | EC Juventudeavg 57.3¢ | $204.52 | $134.01 | -$70.52 | 50% 23534-23109 (46643) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Clube Náutico Capibaribeavg 37¢ | $57.88 | $94.82 | +$36.94 | 59% 43329-29788 (73117) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Clube Náutico Capibaribeavg 61¢ | $63.44 | $66.04 | +$2.6 | 57% 27008-20057 (47065) |
FO foooool<$100 | EC Juventudeavg 59¢ | $11.8 | $7.3 | -$4.5 | 50% 10210-10096 (20306) |
Invested
$355.68
Value
$332.88
PnL
-$22.8
Record
59%
89-63 (152)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$272.6
Value
$188.96
PnL
+$9.23
Record
58%
39668-28654 (68322)
Invested
$204.52
Value
$134.01
PnL
-$70.52
Record
50%
23534-23109 (46643)
Invested
$57.88
Value
$94.82
PnL
+$36.94
Record
59%
43329-29788 (73117)
Invested
$63.44
Value
$66.04
PnL
+$2.6
Record
57%
27008-20057 (47065)
Invested
$11.8
Value
$7.3
PnL
-$4.5
Record
50%
10210-10096 (20306)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.