Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-10-26?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 90¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$65.07

Smart Money Entry

89.6¢ → 89.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,980

Combined PnL+$16.31

Yes3 traders

Total Value$324.08

Total Shares2,649

Combined PnL+$48.75

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 89.6¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$17.21	59% 43129-29562 (72691)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 10.5¢	$212.57	$264.12	+$51.54	50% 23388-23002 (46390)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.1¢	$58.67	$55.14	-$3.53	58% 39436-28511 (67947)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 90¢	$27	$26.1	-$0.9	50% 31550-31196 (62746)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$4.08	$4.82	+$0.74	53% 15491-13677 (29168)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,751.03

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$17.21

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$212.57

Value

$264.12

PnL

+$51.54

Record

50%

23388-23002 (46390)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.67

Value

$55.14

PnL

-$3.53

Record

58%

39436-28511 (67947)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$27

Value

$26.1

PnL

-$0.9

Record

50%

31550-31196 (62746)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.08

Value

$4.82

PnL

+$0.74

Record

53%

15491-13677 (29168)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.