Will EC Juventude win on 2026-10-26?
2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 95¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
9
Yes 22%
$2.4K
$40.73
69.7¢ → 94.5¢
+36% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 95%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Yesavg 69¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$39.31 | 54% 54359-46301 (100660) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 31.8¢ | $835.95 | $815.73 | -$20.23 | 50% 23534-23109 (46643) |
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 75.1¢ | $187.28 | $206.65 | +$19.37 | 59% 43329-29788 (73117) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 30.8¢ | $131.87 | $128.99 | +$0.79 | 58% 39668-28654 (68322) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $7.22 | $7.95 | +$0.74 | 50% 31780-31415 (63195) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $8.01 | $7.52 | -$0.61 | 53% 15512-13700 (29212) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 20.8¢ | $2.29 | $3.41 | +$1.12 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 26.9¢ | $1.48 | $1.7 | +$0.22 | 50% 11601-11716 (23317) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $1.55 | $1.55 | +$0 | 54% 5939-5026 (10965) |
RN1Invested
$1,142.33
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$39.31
Record
54%
54359-46301 (100660)
Invested
$835.95
Value
$815.73
PnL
-$20.23
Record
50%
23534-23109 (46643)
Invested
$187.28
Value
$206.65
PnL
+$19.37
Record
59%
43329-29788 (73117)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$131.87
Value
$128.99
PnL
+$0.79
Record
58%
39668-28654 (68322)
Invested
$7.22
Value
$7.95
PnL
+$0.74
Record
50%
31780-31415 (63195)
Invested
$8.01
Value
$7.52
PnL
-$0.61
Record
53%
15512-13700 (29212)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.29
Value
$3.41
PnL
+$1.12
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
Invested
$1.48
Value
$1.7
PnL
+$0.22
Record
50%
11601-11716 (23317)
Invested
$1.55
Value
$1.55
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
5939-5026 (10965)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.