Will EC Juventude vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe end in a draw?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $157 held · ended Oct 26

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$157.14

Combined PnL

-$4.34

Smart Money Entry

81.4¢ → 96¢

+18% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$145.08

Total Shares184

Combined PnL-$4.36

Yes2 traders

Total Value$12.06

Total Shares56

Combined PnL+$0.02

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 80.4¢	$128.29	$126.1	-$2.18	50% 23534-23109 (46643)
AR ARocky33<$100	Noavg 94¢	$13.63	$11.46	-$2.17	76% 3834-1222 (5056)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$7.5	$7.86	-$0.18	53% 15512-13700 (29212)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 79¢	$7.52	$7.52	-$0	50% 11601-11716 (23317)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$4	$4.2	+$0.2	59% 43329-29788 (73117)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$128.29

Value

$126.1

PnL

-$2.18

Record

50%

23534-23109 (46643)

ARocky33<$100

Invested

$13.63

Value

$11.46

PnL

-$2.17

Record

76%

3834-1222 (5056)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.86

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

15512-13700 (29212)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$7.52

Value

$7.52

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

11601-11716 (23317)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.