América FC vs. Cuiabá EC: O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$3.3K
-$41.5
96.3¢ → 99.6¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 96.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$21.03 | 54% 54359-46301 (100660) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 95.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$7.97 | 59% 43329-29788 (73117) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 97.8¢ | $576.99 | $566.4 | -$10.59 | 50% 11601-11716 (23317) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 4¢ | $69.34 | $69.82 | +$0.48 | 50% 23534-23109 (46643) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 21¢ | $26.06 | $7.72 | -$18.34 | 58% 39668-28654 (68322) |
RN1Invested
$1,500.42
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$21.03
Record
54%
54359-46301 (100660)
Invested
$1,208.83
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$7.97
Record
59%
43329-29788 (73117)
Invested
$576.99
Value
$566.4
PnL
-$10.59
Record
50%
11601-11716 (23317)
Invested
$69.34
Value
$69.82
PnL
+$0.48
Record
50%
23534-23109 (46643)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$26.06
Value
$7.72
PnL
-$18.34
Record
58%
39668-28654 (68322)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.