América FC vs. Cuiabá EC: O/U 2.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 72¢ · $567 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 100%
$566.55
-$56.51
79.8¢ → 72¢
-10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 72%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 78.3¢ | $388.07 | $356.94 | -$31.13 | 59% 43329-29788 (73117) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 83.9¢ | $225.91 | $196.4 | -$29.51 | 50% 23534-23109 (46643) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $6.46 | $9.47 | +$3.01 | 54% 54359-46301 (100660) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $2.42 | $3.74 | +$1.12 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
Invested
$388.07
Value
$356.94
PnL
-$31.13
Record
59%
43329-29788 (73117)
Invested
$225.91
Value
$196.4
PnL
-$29.51
Record
50%
23534-23109 (46643)
RN1<$100Invested
$6.46
Value
$9.47
PnL
+$3.01
Record
54%
54359-46301 (100660)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.42
Value
$3.74
PnL
+$1.12
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.