Will América FC vs. Cuiabá EC end in a draw?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 81¢ · $691 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$690.83
-$61.78
70.7¢ → 80.5¢
+14% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 70.1¢ | $333.12 | $370.55 | +$37.43 | 58% 1578-1158 (2736) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 29.9¢ | $258.83 | $178.56 | -$80.27 | 59% 43329-29788 (73117) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $67.98 | $53.48 | -$14.5 | 50% 11601-11716 (23317) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $46.33 | $40.99 | -$5.33 | 54% 54359-46301 (100660) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $26.69 | $23.26 | -$1.33 | 58% 39668-28654 (68322) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 71.7¢ | $21.2 | $23.19 | +$2 | 54% 5939-5026 (10965) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $0.3 | $0.53 | +$0.23 | 50% 10210-10096 (20306) |
oieshfn345Invested
$333.12
Value
$370.55
PnL
+$37.43
Record
58%
1578-1158 (2736)
Invested
$258.83
Value
$178.56
PnL
-$80.27
Record
59%
43329-29788 (73117)
Invested
$67.98
Value
$53.48
PnL
-$14.5
Record
50%
11601-11716 (23317)
RN1<$100Invested
$46.33
Value
$40.99
PnL
-$5.33
Record
54%
54359-46301 (100660)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$26.69
Value
$23.26
PnL
-$1.33
Record
58%
39668-28654 (68322)
Invested
$21.2
Value
$23.19
PnL
+$2
Record
54%
5939-5026 (10965)
Invested
$0.3
Value
$0.53
PnL
+$0.23
Record
50%
10210-10096 (20306)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.