Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-10-26?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 98¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 26

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

-$939.95

Smart Money Entry

66.7¢ → 97.5¢

+46% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares9,420

Combined PnL-$138.88

Yes3 traders

Total Value$341.32

Total Shares2,864

Combined PnL-$801.07

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 64.7¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$15.65	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
RN1	Noavg 68.4¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$73.65	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$818.76	$721.92	-$96.84	58% 1578-1158 (2736)
└ No leg	Noavg 76.5¢	$666.15	$565.67	-$100.49
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34.2¢	$152.6	$156.25	+$3.65
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 62.4¢	$436.39	$494.31	+$57.92	50% 11601-11716 (23317)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 91¢	$524.74	$376.33	-$148.41	50% 31780-31415 (63195)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 41.4¢	$247.59	$244.11	-$3.49	58% 39668-28654 (68322)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 41.4¢	$882.9	$85.32	-$797.58	50% 23534-23109 (46643)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 60.1¢	$76.67	$82.97	+$6.3	50% 10210-10096 (20306)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 51¢	$41.95	$54.29	+$3.7	53% 15512-13700 (29212)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 68.9¢	$20.66	$19.76	-$0.89	54% 5939-5026 (10965)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$11.9	$11.9	+$0	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 56¢	$6.12	$7.11	+$0.49	61% 8819-5730 (14549)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$3,948.75

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$15.65

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

RN1

Invested

$1,452.17

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$73.65

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$818.76

Value

$721.92

PnL

-$96.84

Record

58%

1578-1158 (2736)

Both legs:

No$666.1576.5¢-$100.49

Yes$152.634.2¢+$3.65

LuckyLoo

Invested

$436.39

Value

$494.31

PnL

+$57.92

Record

50%

11601-11716 (23317)

SnakeBall

Invested

$524.74

Value

$376.33

PnL

-$148.41

Record

50%

31780-31415 (63195)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$247.59

Value

$244.11

PnL

-$3.49

Record

58%

39668-28654 (68322)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$882.9

Value

$85.32

PnL

-$797.58

Record

50%

23534-23109 (46643)

foooool<$100

Invested

$76.67

Value

$82.97

PnL

+$6.3

Record

50%

10210-10096 (20306)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$41.95

Value

$54.29

PnL

+$3.7

Record

53%

15512-13700 (29212)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$20.66

Value

$19.76

PnL

-$0.89

Record

54%

5939-5026 (10965)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.9

Value

$11.9

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$6.12

Value

$7.11

PnL

+$0.49

Record

61%

8819-5730 (14549)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.