Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (79%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will América FC win on 2026-10-26?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 22¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 26

Yes79¢No21¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$100.38

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 21.5¢

-61% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes79%

No22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,589

Combined PnL+$281.77

No3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,190

Combined PnL-$382.15

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 37.1¢	$559.41	$1.1K	+$554.12	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 69.1¢	$849.06	$904.4	+$23.8	58% 39668-28654 (68322)
RN1CTR	Noavg 43¢	$810.83	$446.02	-$364.81	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 60.2¢	$332.41	$413.36	+$80.94	58% 1578-1158 (2736)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 53.3¢	$734.7	$377.47	-$357.23	50% 23534-23109 (46643)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 73.2¢	$224.8	$183.67	-$41.14	50% 11601-11716 (23317)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 57.3¢	$73.58	$99.49	+$25.92	54% 5939-5026 (10965)
FO foooool<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$63.67	$46.3	-$17.37	50% 10210-10096 (20306)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 65.9¢	$7.25	$2.64	-$4.61	54% 2262-1899 (4161)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$559.41

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$554.12

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$849.06

Value

$904.4

PnL

+$23.8

Record

58%

39668-28654 (68322)

RN1CTR

Invested

$810.83

Value

$446.02

PnL

-$364.81

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$332.41

Value

$413.36

PnL

+$80.94

Record

58%

1578-1158 (2736)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$734.7

Value

$377.47

PnL

-$357.23

Record

50%

23534-23109 (46643)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$224.8

Value

$183.67

PnL

-$41.14

Record

50%

11601-11716 (23317)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.58

Value

$99.49

PnL

+$25.92

Record

54%

5939-5026 (10965)

foooool<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.67

Value

$46.3

PnL

-$17.37

Record

50%

10210-10096 (20306)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.25

Value

$2.64

PnL

-$4.61

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.4%

21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$327.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

427.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.