CR Flamengo vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 5.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 85¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 57%
$1.5K
-$112.47
90.6¢ → 85¢
-6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 85%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 91.3¢ | $1.1K | $991.15 | -$61.1 | 50% 31780-31415 (63195) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 89.5¢ | $374.44 | $339.89 | -$34.55 | 50% 23534-23109 (46643) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 91.3¢ | $78.66 | $73.37 | -$5.29 | 59% 43329-29788 (73117) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 85¢ | $68.07 | $68.87 | +$0.8 | 61% 8819-5730 (14549) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 14.9¢ | $52.71 | $49.54 | -$3.17 | 54% 54359-46301 (100660) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 23.7¢ | $21.29 | $12.6 | -$8.7 | 50% 11601-11716 (23317) |
AR ARocky33CTR<$100 | Overavg 15¢ | $6.91 | $6.45 | -$0.46 | 76% 3834-1222 (5056) |
Invested
$1,052.25
Value
$991.15
PnL
-$61.1
Record
50%
31780-31415 (63195)
Invested
$374.44
Value
$339.89
PnL
-$34.55
Record
50%
23534-23109 (46643)
Invested
$78.66
Value
$73.37
PnL
-$5.29
Record
59%
43329-29788 (73117)
poshposh<$100Invested
$68.07
Value
$68.87
PnL
+$0.8
Record
61%
8819-5730 (14549)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$52.71
Value
$49.54
PnL
-$3.17
Record
54%
54359-46301 (100660)
Invested
$21.29
Value
$12.6
PnL
-$8.7
Record
50%
11601-11716 (23317)
Invested
$6.91
Value
$6.45
PnL
-$0.46
Record
76%
3834-1222 (5056)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.