CR Flamengo vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 3.5

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 77¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 26

Over77¢Under23¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

$741.99

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 76.5¢

+15% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 77%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 16 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over77%

Under24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares8,351

Combined PnL-$177.44

Under9 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares11,252

Combined PnL+$919.44

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO Rocky31	Overavg 90¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$116.63	73% 1405-519 (1924)
KY Kyn008CTR	Underavg 61¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$47.24	50% 212-209 (421)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 35¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$131.31	50% 23534-23109 (46643)
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.9¢	$475.19	$828.56	+$353.37
└ Under leg	Underavg 35¢	$676.06	$454.01	-$222.05
ZaiZoiBeleCTR	Underavg 10¢	$568.8	$1.1K	+$772.07	80% 4906-1215 (6121)
RN1	Overavg 55.5¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$261.49	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Underavg 56¢	$983.3	$983.3	-$0	53% 1088-961 (2049)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 52.2¢	$718.24	$624.53	-$93.71	50% 11601-11716 (23317)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 36.4¢	$371.6	$571.17	+$199.57	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 38.5¢	$342.29	$390.69	+$48.4	58% 39668-28654 (68322)
FO foooool	Overavg 55.2¢	$124.99	$99.63	-$25.36	50% 10210-10096 (20306)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 39¢	$50	$88	+$38	56% 6752-5410 (12162)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$58.5	$84	+$25.5	61% 8819-5730 (14549)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 16.2¢	$43.6	$17.51	-$26.09	49% 18204-18601 (36805)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 16.1¢	$1.05	$3.65	+$2.6	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
SY SyrrokCTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$9.36	$3.2	-$6.16	62% 1768-1078 (2846)
AR ARocky33<$100	Overavg 90¢	$2.09	$2.17	+$0.08	76% 3834-1222 (5056)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$1.22	$0.39	-$0.82	48% 4379-4828 (9207)

Rocky31

Over

Invested

$2,999.15

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$116.63

Record

73%

1405-519 (1924)

Kyn008CTR

Under

Invested

$1,919.64

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$47.24

Record

50%

212-209 (421)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,151.26

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$131.31

Record

50%

23534-23109 (46643)

Both legs:

Over$475.1943.9¢+$353.37

Under$676.0635¢-$222.05

ZaiZoiBeleCTR

Under

Invested

$568.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$772.07

Record

80%

4906-1215 (6121)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,355.05

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$261.49

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

rabbitfoot1CTR

Under

Invested

$983.3

Value

$983.3

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

1088-961 (2049)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$718.24

Value

$624.53

PnL

-$93.71

Record

50%

11601-11716 (23317)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$371.6

Value

$571.17

PnL

+$199.57

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$342.29

Value

$390.69

PnL

+$48.4

Record

58%

39668-28654 (68322)

foooool

Over

Invested

$124.99

Value

$99.63

PnL

-$25.36

Record

50%

10210-10096 (20306)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$50

Value

$88

PnL

+$38

Record

56%

6752-5410 (12162)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$58.5

Value

$84

PnL

+$25.5

Record

61%

8819-5730 (14549)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$43.6

Value

$17.51

PnL

-$26.09

Record

49%

18204-18601 (36805)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.05

Value

$3.65

PnL

+$2.6

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

SyrrokCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.36

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$6.16

Record

62%

1768-1078 (2846)

ARocky33<$100

Over

Invested

$2.09

Value

$2.17

PnL

+$0.08

Record

76%

3834-1222 (5056)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.22

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$0.82

Record

48%

4379-4828 (9207)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 77%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 16 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.