Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

CR Flamengo vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$1.03

Smart Money Entry

25.5¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$891.07

Total Shares3,377

Combined PnL+$20.83

Over3 traders

Total Value$142.54

Total Shares172

Combined PnL-$21.85

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 19.7¢	$396.4	$521.91	+$125.5	50% 23534-23109 (46643)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 37.2¢	$277.42	$193.67	-$83.75	50% 31780-31415 (63195)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 29.2¢	$152.58	$135.93	-$16.66	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 87.2¢	$76.02	$64.52	-$11.5	50% 11601-11716 (23317)
RN1<$100	Overavg 90¢	$56.23	$47.12	-$9.1	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
KY Kyn008CTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$41.59	$32.28	-$9.3	50% 212-209 (421)
CA Cannae<$100	Overavg 61¢	$32.15	$30.9	-$1.25	53% 15512-13700 (29212)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$2.24	$7.28	+$5.04	61% 8819-5730 (14549)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$396.4

Value

$521.91

PnL

+$125.5

Record

50%

23534-23109 (46643)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$277.42

Value

$193.67

PnL

-$83.75

Record

50%

31780-31415 (63195)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$152.58

Value

$135.93

PnL

-$16.66

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$76.02

Value

$64.52

PnL

-$11.5

Record

50%

11601-11716 (23317)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$56.23

Value

$47.12

PnL

-$9.1

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

Kyn008CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41.59

Value

$32.28

PnL

-$9.3

Record

50%

212-209 (421)

Cannae<$100

Over

Invested

$32.15

Value

$30.9

PnL

-$1.25

Record

53%

15512-13700 (29212)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.24

Value

$7.28

PnL

+$5.04

Record

61%

8819-5730 (14549)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.