CR Flamengo vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 1.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 95¢ · $306 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 75%
$306.29
$30.9
85.3¢ → 95¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 95%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 83¢ | $166 | $186 | +$25 | 56% 6752-5410 (12162) |
 LonnieHawkins<$100 | Overavg 95.5¢ | $61.47 | $61.16 | -$0.31 | 51% 1778-1691 (3469) |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 82¢ | $49.61 | $57.47 | +$7.86 | 50% 10210-10096 (20306) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 10¢ | $3.31 | $1.65 | -$1.65 | 61% 8819-5730 (14549) |
0xheavy888Invested
$166
Value
$186
PnL
+$25
Record
56%
6752-5410 (12162)
LonnieHawkins<$100Invested
$61.47
Value
$61.16
PnL
-$0.31
Record
51%
1778-1691 (3469)
Invested
$49.61
Value
$57.47
PnL
+$7.86
Record
50%
10210-10096 (20306)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$3.31
Value
$1.65
PnL
-$1.65
Record
61%
8819-5730 (14549)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.