CR Flamengo vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 0.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 98¢ · $644 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 67%
$644.18
$15.88
96.6¢ → 97.7¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VA Vampiro1 | Overavg 97.7¢ | $368.46 | $368.46 | +$8.35 | 77% 2993-917 (3910) |
 RN1 | Overavg 95.1¢ | $264.05 | $271.57 | +$7.52 | 54% 54359-46301 (100660) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 3.9¢ | $4.15 | $4.15 | +$0 | 50% 10210-10096 (20306) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.