Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold CA Mineiro (62%) · CA Mineiro at 75¢ · $17K held · ended Oct 26

CR Flamengo25¢CA Mineiro75¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CA Mineiro

Consensus Traders

CA Mineiro 62%

Total Value

$17.2K

Combined PnL

$-3.1K

Smart Money Entry

68.5¢ → 75¢

+10% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralCA Mineiro at 75%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CA Mineiro

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

CR Flamengo25%

CA Mineiro75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CA Mineiro8 traders

Total Value$13.0K

Total Shares16,551

Combined PnL+$1.4K

CR Flamengo5 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares28,338

Combined PnL$-4.5K

CA Mineiro — 62%CR Flamengo — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	CA Mineiroavg 68.3¢	$6.5K	$7.0K	+$512.65	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
DE DelidelaDeleCTR	CR Flamengoavg 32¢	$9.0K	$4.2K	$-4.5K	48% 30-33 (63)
GO GoalLineGhost	CA Mineiroavg 68.7¢	$2.8K	$3.2K	+$352.03	50% 23534-23109 (46643)
VeryLucky888	CA Mineiroavg 68.2¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$362.01	58% 39668-28654 (68322)
HRTrading	CA Mineiroavg 68.3¢	$426.44	$523.83	+$97.39	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
0xheavy888	CA Mineiroavg 68¢	$136	$170	+$31	56% 6752-5410 (12162)
0X 0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004	CA Mineiroavg 69¢	$552	$150	+$42	56% 127-99 (226)
poshposh<$100	CA Mineiroavg 80¢	$64.93	$68.99	+$4.06	61% 8819-5730 (14549)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	CR Flamengoavg 33¢	$64.2	$29.18	-$44.75	62% 2170-1314 (3484)
FO foooool<$100	CA Mineiroavg 66¢	$12.54	$16.15	+$3.61	50% 10210-10096 (20306)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	CR Flamengoavg 33¢	$28.57	$12.99	-$15.59	50% 31780-31415 (63195)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	CR Flamengoavg 31¢	$3.1	$1.5	-$1.6	59% 29411-20147 (49558)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	CR Flamengoavg 32¢	$1.95	$0.91	-$1.03	50% 11601-11716 (23317)

UpTheBlues

CA Mineiro

Invested

$6,527.56

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$512.65

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

DelidelaDeleCTR

CR Flamengo

Invested

$8,973

Value

$4.2K

PnL

$-4.5K

Record

48%

30-33 (63)

GoalLineGhost

CA Mineiro

Invested

$2,811.25

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$352.03

Record

50%

23534-23109 (46643)

VeryLucky888

CA Mineiro

Invested

$1,787.41

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$362.01

Record

58%

39668-28654 (68322)

HRTrading

CA Mineiro

Invested

$426.44

Value

$523.83

PnL

+$97.39

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

0xheavy888

CA Mineiro

Invested

$136

Value

$170

PnL

+$31

Record

56%

6752-5410 (12162)

0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004

CA Mineiro

Invested

$552

Value

$150

PnL

+$42

Record

56%

127-99 (226)

poshposh<$100

CA Mineiro

Invested

$64.93

Value

$68.99

PnL

+$4.06

Record

61%

8819-5730 (14549)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

CR Flamengo

Invested

$64.2

Value

$29.18

PnL

-$44.75

Record

62%

2170-1314 (3484)

foooool<$100

CA Mineiro

Invested

$12.54

Value

$16.15

PnL

+$3.61

Record

50%

10210-10096 (20306)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

CR Flamengo

Invested

$28.57

Value

$12.99

PnL

-$15.59

Record

50%

31780-31415 (63195)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

CR Flamengo

Invested

$3.1

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$1.6

Record

59%

29411-20147 (49558)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

CR Flamengo

Invested

$1.95

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$1.03

Record

50%

11601-11716 (23317)

Research grade

NeutralCA Mineiro at 75%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

CA Mineiro

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CA Mineiro wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.