Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold CR Flamengo (25%) · CR Flamengo at 54¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 26

CR Flamengo54¢CA Mineiro46¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CR Flamengo

Consensus Traders

CR Flamengo 25%

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$204.81

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 54¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralCR Flamengo at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CR Flamengo

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

CR Flamengo54%

CA Mineiro46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CR Flamengo2 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares9,218

Combined PnL+$115.58

CA Mineiro6 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares5,825

Combined PnL+$89.23

CR Flamengo — 25%CA Mineiro — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	CR Flamengoavg 52.2¢	$4.8K	$4.9K	+$116.03	50% 203-199 (402)
LU LuckyLooCTR	CA Mineiroavg 48¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$81.81	50% 10665-10792 (21457)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	CA Mineiroavg 47¢	$442.83	$438.28	-$4.55	51% 21492-20930 (42422)
CA CannaeCTR	CA Mineiroavg 47.4¢	$209.1	$220.62	+$11.52	53% 14998-13126 (28124)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	CA Mineiroavg 46.4¢	$176.23	$176.47	+$0.24	60% 39473-26004 (65477)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	CA Mineiroavg 45.5¢	$56.37	$56.31	-$0.06	52% 4539-4208 (8747)
MA manoamano<$100	CR Flamengoavg 55¢	$48.89	$48.45	-$0.44	51% 412-395 (807)
HRTradingCTR<$100	CA Mineiroavg 47¢	$4.23	$4.5	+$0.27	55% 2064-1680 (3744)

Kch-Temp

CR Flamengo

Invested

$4,768.15

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$116.03

Record

50%

203-199 (402)

LuckyLooCTR

CA Mineiro

Invested

$1,963.44

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$81.81

Record

50%

10665-10792 (21457)

GoalLineGhostCTR

CA Mineiro

Invested

$442.83

Value

$438.28

PnL

-$4.55

Record

51%

21492-20930 (42422)

CannaeCTR

CA Mineiro

Invested

$209.1

Value

$220.62

PnL

+$11.52

Record

53%

14998-13126 (28124)

UpTheBluesCTR

CA Mineiro

Invested

$176.23

Value

$176.47

PnL

+$0.24

Record

60%

39473-26004 (65477)

hi774cCTR<$100

CA Mineiro

Invested

$56.37

Value

$56.31

PnL

-$0.06

Record

52%

4539-4208 (8747)

manoamano<$100

CR Flamengo

Invested

$48.89

Value

$48.45

PnL

-$0.44

Record

51%

412-395 (807)

HRTradingCTR<$100

CA Mineiro

Invested

$4.23

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.27

Record

55%

2064-1680 (3744)

Research grade

NeutralCR Flamengo at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

CR Flamengo

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CR Flamengo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.