Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

CR Flamengo leading at halftime?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$37.41

Smart Money Entry

72.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,270

Combined PnL+$175.84

Yes3 traders

Total Value$218.3

Total Shares504

Combined PnL-$213.25

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 60.2¢	$924.36	$1.1K	+$161.7	50% 23534-23109 (46643)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 88.2¢	$788.15	$782.61	-$5.54	50% 31780-31415 (63195)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 77.4¢	$704.8	$339.27	-$365.53	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
└ No leg	Noavg 63.9¢	$191.28	$266.24	+$74.97
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 77.4¢	$513.52	$73.03	-$440.5
LU LuckyLoo	Yesavg 47.5¢	$296.71	$200.68	-$96.04	50% 11601-11716 (23317)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Noavg 81¢	$83.67	$91.94	+$8.26	—
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 78.1¢	$77.9	$88.76	+$10.86	61% 8819-5730 (14549)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 84.4¢	$118.39	$15.43	-$102.96	49% 18204-18601 (36805)
RO Rocko33<$100	Yesavg 82.3¢	$16.45	$2.2	-$14.25	64% 932-515 (1447)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 80¢	$1.88	$2.09	+$0.21	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 73¢	$1.6	$1.94	+$0.35	54% 54359-46301 (100660)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$924.36

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$161.7

Record

50%

23534-23109 (46643)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$788.15

Value

$782.61

PnL

-$5.54

Record

50%

31780-31415 (63195)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$704.8

Value

$339.27

PnL

-$365.53

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

Both legs:

No$191.2863.9¢+$74.97

Yes$513.5277.4¢-$440.5

LuckyLoo

Yes

Invested

$296.71

Value

$200.68

PnL

-$96.04

Record

50%

11601-11716 (23317)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Invested

$83.67

Value

$91.94

PnL

+$8.26

Record

—

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$77.9

Value

$88.76

PnL

+$10.86

Record

61%

8819-5730 (14549)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$118.39

Value

$15.43

PnL

-$102.96

Record

49%

18204-18601 (36805)

Rocko33<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.45

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$14.25

Record

64%

932-515 (1447)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$1.88

Value

$2.09

PnL

+$0.21

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.94

PnL

+$0.35

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.