CA Mineiro leading at halftime?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 26

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

-$789.09

Smart Money Entry

85.5¢ → 100¢

+17% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,576

Combined PnL-$975.43

Yes3 traders

Total Value$360.86

Total Shares609

Combined PnL+$186.33

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 51.9¢	$3.5K	$3.1K	-$373.29	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51.9¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$50.79
└ No leg	Noavg 74.6¢	$1.1K	$721.43	-$424.08
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 75.3¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$121.56	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
└ No leg	Noavg 75.3¢	$1.9K	$1.2K	-$694.71
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 5.8¢	$70.95	$644.11	+$573.15
VeryLucky888	Noavg 90¢	$684.22	$367.5	-$307.29	58% 39668-28654 (68322)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 90.5¢	$621.7	$322.89	-$298.81	50% 31780-31415 (63195)
poshposhCTR	Yesavg 20.3¢	$159.59	$268.92	+$109.33	61% 8819-5730 (14549)
SL SlickRick123	Noavg 68¢	$366.14	$253.07	-$113.07	—
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 90.7¢	$302.65	$156.86	-$145.79	50% 23534-23109 (46643)
HRTrading	Noavg 79.8¢	$127.48	$80.3	-$47.18	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$4.94	$65.44	+$60.5	50% 11601-11716 (23317)
ZX zxc368	Noavg 99.9¢	$119.5	$56.22	-$63.28	99% 12422-177 (12599)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$10	$26.5	+$16.5	48% 4379-4828 (9207)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,466.62

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$373.29

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

Both legs:

Yes$2,321.1251.9¢+$50.79

No$1,145.5174.6¢-$424.08

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$1,921.3

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$121.56

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

Both legs:

No$1,850.3475.3¢-$694.71

Yes$70.955.8¢+$573.15

VeryLucky888

Invested

$684.22

Value

$367.5

PnL

-$307.29

Record

58%

39668-28654 (68322)

SnakeBall

Invested

$621.7

Value

$322.89

PnL

-$298.81

Record

50%

31780-31415 (63195)

poshposhCTR

Yes

Invested

$159.59

Value

$268.92

PnL

+$109.33

Record

61%

8819-5730 (14549)

SlickRick123

Invested

$366.14

Value

$253.07

PnL

-$113.07

Record

—

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$302.65

Value

$156.86

PnL

-$145.79

Record

50%

23534-23109 (46643)

HRTrading

Invested

$127.48

Value

$80.3

PnL

-$47.18

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.94

Value

$65.44

PnL

+$60.5

Record

50%

11601-11716 (23317)

zxc368

Invested

$119.5

Value

$56.22

PnL

-$63.28

Record

99%

12422-177 (12599)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$26.5

PnL

+$16.5

Record

48%

4379-4828 (9207)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.