Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-26?

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 78¢ · $93 held · ends Oct 26

Yes78¢No22¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$93.05

Combined PnL

$0.32

Research grade

NeutralYes at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes78%

No23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$93.05

Total Shares125

Combined PnL+$0.32

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA Cannae<$100	Yesavg 73¢	$42.47	$43.05	+$0.58	53% 14998-13126 (28124)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 76¢	$29	$28.24	-$0.76	51% 21492-20930 (42422)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$12.32	$12.24	-$0.08	60% 39473-26004 (65477)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 73¢	$22.95	$6.93	+$0.65	58% 37023-26943 (63966)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 76¢	$2.66	$2.59	-$0.07	55% 2064-1680 (3744)

Cannae<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.47

Value

$43.05

PnL

+$0.58

Record

53%

14998-13126 (28124)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$29

Value

$28.24

PnL

-$0.76

Record

51%

21492-20930 (42422)

UpTheBlues<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.32

Value

$12.24

PnL

-$0.08

Record

60%

39473-26004 (65477)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.95

Value

$6.93

PnL

+$0.65

Record

58%

37023-26943 (63966)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.66

Value

$2.59

PnL

-$0.07

Record

55%

2064-1680 (3744)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.