CR Flamengo vs. CA Mineiro: 1st Half O/U 1.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 43%
$1.5K
-$285.1
66.4¢ → 100¢
+51% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LonnieHawkins | Overavg 45.3¢ | $469.7 | $539.67 | +$69.97 | 51% 1778-1691 (3469) |
SY SyrrokCTR | Underavg 55¢ | $500 | $436.36 | -$63.64 | 62% 1768-1078 (2846) |
 ZaiZoiBele | Overavg 99¢ | $648.22 | $340.48 | -$307.74 | 80% 4906-1215 (6121) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 38.2¢ | $82.03 | $101.1 | +$19.08 | 54% 54359-46301 (100660) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 44.9¢ | $71.29 | $76.28 | +$4.99 | 59% 43329-29788 (73117) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $19.34 | $23.21 | +$3.87 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Overavg 81.9¢ | $31.84 | $20.22 | -$11.63 | 76% 3834-1222 (5056) |
LonnieHawkinsInvested
$469.7
Value
$539.67
PnL
+$69.97
Record
51%
1778-1691 (3469)
Invested
$500
Value
$436.36
PnL
-$63.64
Record
62%
1768-1078 (2846)
ZaiZoiBeleInvested
$648.22
Value
$340.48
PnL
-$307.74
Record
80%
4906-1215 (6121)
RN1CTRInvested
$82.03
Value
$101.1
PnL
+$19.08
Record
54%
54359-46301 (100660)
Invested
$71.29
Value
$76.28
PnL
+$4.99
Record
59%
43329-29788 (73117)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$19.34
Value
$23.21
PnL
+$3.87
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
Invested
$31.84
Value
$20.22
PnL
-$11.63
Record
76%
3834-1222 (5056)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.