Exact Score: CR Flamengo 0 - 1 CA Mineiro?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 93¢ · $853 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 33%
$853.49
$3.75
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 93.4¢ | $742.81 | $744.78 | +$1.97 | 54% 54359-46301 (100660) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 6.6¢ | $105.6 | $107.36 | +$1.76 | 59% 43329-29788 (73117) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.6¢ | $1.32 | $1.34 | +$0.02 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.