Will CR Flamengo vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw?

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (59%) · No at 93¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 26

Yes8¢No92¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 59%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.8K

Combined PnL

$284.89

Smart Money Entry

86.1¢ → 92.5¢

+7% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 17 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares7,586

Combined PnL-$172.41

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares5,269

Combined PnL+$457.3

No — 59%Yes — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (14 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 81.4¢	$5.1K	$4.7K	-$335.88	50% 23534-23109 (46643)
└ No leg	Noavg 81.4¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	-$361.11
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$25.23
RN1	Noavg 90.4¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$26.2	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
oieshfn345	Noavg 81.4¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$154.18	58% 1578-1158 (2736)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 20.1¢	$745.67	$965.33	+$219.66	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
AM AmericaFirst1	Noavg 79.1¢	$291.14	$272.38	-$18.76	62% 2170-1314 (3484)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 78.5¢	$198.47	$197.96	-$0.51	52% 13421-12256 (25677)
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 15¢	$92.3	$169.22	+$76.92	50% 212-209 (421)
0xheavy888	Noavg 85¢	$170	$148	-$15	56% 6752-5410 (12162)
0X 0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004CTR	Yesavg 15¢	$150	$130	+$110	56% 127-99 (226)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 80.8¢	$136.44	$125.01	-$11.43	50% 11601-11716 (23317)
FO foooool	Noavg 77¢	$100	$96.1	-$3.9	50% 10210-10096 (20306)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.5¢	$46.5	$78	+$31.5	61% 8819-5730 (14549)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 84¢	$65.94	$69.99	+$5.89	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$9	$26	+$17	51% 1144-1084 (2228)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 79¢	$8.96	$8.39	-$0.57	49% 18204-18601 (36805)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$6.9	$7.8	+$0.9	58% 18114-13329 (31443)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 77¢	$3.85	$3.7	-$0.15	54% 5939-5026 (10965)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$1.54	$2.86	+$1.32	58% 39668-28654 (68322)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$5,051.28

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$335.88

Record

50%

23534-23109 (46643)

Both legs:

No$3,985.6381.4¢-$361.11

Yes$1,065.6425.4¢+$25.23

RN1

Invested

$4,013.86

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$26.2

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

oieshfn345

Invested

$1,919.44

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$154.18

Record

58%

1578-1158 (2736)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$745.67

Value

$965.33

PnL

+$219.66

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

AmericaFirst1

Invested

$291.14

Value

$272.38

PnL

-$18.76

Record

62%

2170-1314 (3484)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$198.47

Value

$197.96

PnL

-$0.51

Record

52%

13421-12256 (25677)

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$92.3

Value

$169.22

PnL

+$76.92

Record

50%

212-209 (421)

0xheavy888

Invested

$170

Value

$148

PnL

-$15

Record

56%

6752-5410 (12162)

0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004CTR

Yes

Invested

$150

Value

$130

PnL

+$110

Record

56%

127-99 (226)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$136.44

Value

$125.01

PnL

-$11.43

Record

50%

11601-11716 (23317)

foooool

Invested

$100

Value

$96.1

PnL

-$3.9

Record

50%

10210-10096 (20306)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.5

Value

$78

PnL

+$31.5

Record

61%

8819-5730 (14549)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$65.94

Value

$69.99

PnL

+$5.89

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$26

PnL

+$17

Record

51%

1144-1084 (2228)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$8.96

Value

$8.39

PnL

-$0.57

Record

49%

18204-18601 (36805)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.9

Value

$7.8

PnL

+$0.9

Record

58%

18114-13329 (31443)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.7

PnL

-$0.15

Record

54%

5939-5026 (10965)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.54

Value

$2.86

PnL

+$1.32

Record

58%

39668-28654 (68322)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 17 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (14 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.