Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-10-26?

15 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 99¢ · $25K held · ended Oct 26

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 79%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.5K

Combined PnL

-$268.56

Smart Money Entry

90.6¢ → 98.9¢

+9% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 19 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$19.6K

Total Shares22,762

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares10,379

Combined PnL+$1.1K

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 59% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 87.5¢	$5.9K	$5.5K	-$440.49	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 90¢	$3.1K	$2.9K	-$180.14	58% 1578-1158 (2736)
└ No leg	Noavg 90¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$236.43
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 17.8¢	$853.53	$909.82	+$56.29
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 92.4¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$42.99	50% 31780-31415 (63195)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 88.2¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$227.1	50% 11601-11716 (23317)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 91.8¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$15	58% 39668-28654 (68322)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 94¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	-$325.95	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 7.9¢	$795.26	$1.9K	+$1.1K	50% 23534-23109 (46643)
ZaiZoiBele	Noavg 96.8¢	$2.8K	$1.4K	-$858.9	80% 4906-1215 (6121)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 84.1¢	$925	$891	-$34	51% 1144-1084 (2228)
PA pauleta23	Noavg 99¢	$720.89	$719.42	-$1.47	67% 22791-11234 (34025)
CA Cannae	Noavg 92¢	$703.49	$633.23	-$82.67	53% 15512-13700 (29212)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 89¢	$282.29	$292.27	+$9.98	52% 13421-12256 (25677)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 91.5¢	$87.38	$77.46	-$9.92	54% 5939-5026 (10965)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 86¢	$27.2	$70.63	+$43.43	61% 8819-5730 (14549)
LA lavendergooms<$100	Noavg 80¢	$66.4	$67.23	+$0.83	53% 2598-2325 (4923)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Noavg 80¢	$45.48	$50.92	+$5.43	48% 4379-4828 (9207)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.2¢	$31.46	$36.95	+$5.49	50% 10210-10096 (20306)
0X 0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.6¢	$44.54	$13.54	+$11.74	56% 127-99 (226)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 93¢	$9.4	$8.28	-$1.07	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
KY Kyn008CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$2.59	$7.22	+$4.63	50% 212-209 (421)

RN1

Invested

$5,923.91

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$440.49

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$3,087.52

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$180.14

Record

58%

1578-1158 (2736)

Both legs:

No$2,233.9990¢-$236.43

Yes$853.5317.8¢+$56.29

SnakeBall

Invested

$2,836.5

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$42.99

Record

50%

31780-31415 (63195)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$2,212.12

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$227.1

Record

50%

11601-11716 (23317)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$2,415

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$15

Record

58%

39668-28654 (68322)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$2,498.76

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$325.95

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$795.26

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

23534-23109 (46643)

ZaiZoiBele

Invested

$2,823

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$858.9

Record

80%

4906-1215 (6121)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$925

Value

$891

PnL

-$34

Record

51%

1144-1084 (2228)

pauleta23

Invested

$720.89

Value

$719.42

PnL

-$1.47

Record

67%

22791-11234 (34025)

Cannae

Invested

$703.49

Value

$633.23

PnL

-$82.67

Record

53%

15512-13700 (29212)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$282.29

Value

$292.27

PnL

+$9.98

Record

52%

13421-12256 (25677)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$87.38

Value

$77.46

PnL

-$9.92

Record

54%

5939-5026 (10965)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$27.2

Value

$70.63

PnL

+$43.43

Record

61%

8819-5730 (14549)

lavendergooms<$100

Invested

$66.4

Value

$67.23

PnL

+$0.83

Record

53%

2598-2325 (4923)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Invested

$45.48

Value

$50.92

PnL

+$5.43

Record

48%

4379-4828 (9207)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.46

Value

$36.95

PnL

+$5.49

Record

50%

10210-10096 (20306)

0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.54

Value

$13.54

PnL

+$11.74

Record

56%

127-99 (226)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$9.4

Value

$8.28

PnL

-$1.07

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

Kyn008CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.59

Value

$7.22

PnL

+$4.63

Record

50%

212-209 (421)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 19 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 59% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.