Coritiba FBC vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 4.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 100¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 26

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.0K

Combined PnL

-$375.87

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.6¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$13.3K

Total Shares13,713

Combined PnL-$377.61

Over1 trader

Total Value$5.45

Total Shares182

Combined PnL+$1.74

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL alohaa	Underavg 99.8¢	$13.6K	$13.2K	-$381.3	64% 1164-654 (1818)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Underavg 96.5¢	$337.4	$716.24	+$378.84	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
└ Over leg	Overavg 0.2¢	$26.68	$403.86	+$377.18
└ Under leg	Underavg 96.5¢	$310.72	$312.38	+$1.66
poshposh<$100	Underavg 96.7¢	$59.03	$59.21	+$0.18	61% 8819-5730 (14549)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 86¢	$17.75	$20.02	+$2.17	56% 6752-5410 (12162)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Underavg 88¢	$11.96	$13.18	+$1.34	53% 684-616 (1300)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 2¢	$3.71	$5.45	+$1.74	50% 23534-23109 (46643)

alohaa

Under

Invested

$13,590.76

Value

$13.2K

PnL

-$381.3

Record

64%

1164-654 (1818)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$337.4

Value

$716.24

PnL

+$378.84

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

Both legs:

Over$26.680.2¢+$377.18

Under$310.7296.5¢+$1.66

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$59.03

Value

$59.21

PnL

+$0.18

Record

61%

8819-5730 (14549)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$17.75

Value

$20.02

PnL

+$2.17

Record

56%

6752-5410 (12162)

RichieRicher<$100

Under

Invested

$11.96

Value

$13.18

PnL

+$1.34

Record

53%

684-616 (1300)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.71

Value

$5.45

PnL

+$1.74

Record

50%

23534-23109 (46643)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.