Coritiba FBC vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 3.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 100¢ · $55K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 50%
1 arb excluded
$54.8K
$-3.9K
99.8¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alohaa | Underavg 99.8¢ | $55.7K | $51.9K | $-3.8K | 64% 1164-654 (1818) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Underavg 93.6¢ | $646.68 | $1.7K | +$1.0K | 59% 43329-29788 (73117) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 0.4¢ | $67.51 | $1.1K | +$1.0K | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 93.6¢ | $579.17 | $575.2 | -$3.97 | |
 RN1 | Underavg 97¢ | $732.35 | $702.15 | -$30.2 | 54% 54359-46301 (100660) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 97¢ | $164.14 | $164.1 | -$0.04 | 50% 11601-11716 (23317) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 14.6¢ | $324.08 | $155.18 | -$168.89 | 50% 23534-23109 (46643) |
 HRTradingCTR | Overavg 0.1¢ | $1.5 | $105 | +$103.5 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 4.2¢ | $54.42 | $90.52 | +$36.1 | 50% 10210-10096 (20306) |
Invested
$55,703.58
Value
$51.9K
PnL
$-3.8K
Record
64%
1164-654 (1818)
Invested
$646.68
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
59%
43329-29788 (73117)
Both legs:
RN1Invested
$732.35
Value
$702.15
PnL
-$30.2
Record
54%
54359-46301 (100660)
Invested
$164.14
Value
$164.1
PnL
-$0.04
Record
50%
11601-11716 (23317)
Invested
$324.08
Value
$155.18
PnL
-$168.89
Record
50%
23534-23109 (46643)
HRTradingCTRInvested
$1.5
Value
$105
PnL
+$103.5
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
Invested
$54.42
Value
$90.52
PnL
+$36.1
Record
50%
10210-10096 (20306)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.