Coritiba FBC vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 54¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 26

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$2.51

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 53.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,053

Combined PnL+$0.11

Over3 traders

Total Value$66.39

Total Shares133

Combined PnL+$2.4

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
us391	Underavg 52.7¢	$776.49	$773.59	-$2.9	51% 1575-1524 (3099)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 49¢	$211.01	$215.32	+$4.31	51% 21492-20930 (42422)
BE berlinskies<$100	Underavg 53.5¢	$69.98	$68.68	-$1.3	57% 5415-4028 (9443)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$53.28	$55.5	+$2.22	57% 23972-18438 (42410)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 50¢	$9.19	$9.19	+$0	60% 39473-26004 (65477)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$6.48	$6.62	+$0.13	53% 14998-13126 (28124)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$4.23	$4.27	+$0.04	50% 10665-10792 (21457)

us391

Under

Invested

$776.49

Value

$773.59

PnL

-$2.9

Record

51%

1575-1524 (3099)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$211.01

Value

$215.32

PnL

+$4.31

Record

51%

21492-20930 (42422)

berlinskies<$100

Under

Invested

$69.98

Value

$68.68

PnL

-$1.3

Record

57%

5415-4028 (9443)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$53.28

Value

$55.5

PnL

+$2.22

Record

57%

23972-18438 (42410)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$9.19

Value

$9.19

PnL

+$0

Record

60%

39473-26004 (65477)

CannaeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.48

Value

$6.62

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

14998-13126 (28124)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.23

Value

$4.27

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

10665-10792 (21457)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.