Coritiba FBC vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 92¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26

Over8¢Under92¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$314.62

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 92¢

+82% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 92%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over8%

Under92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,092

Combined PnL+$51.01

Over4 traders

Total Value$600.46

Total Shares1,263

Combined PnL+$263.61

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 49.6¢	$815.44	$872	+$56.56	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 79.1¢	$1.1K	$836.16	-$291.42	50% 23534-23109 (46643)
└ Under leg	Underavg 79.1¢	$884.65	$592.66	-$292
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.9¢	$242.92	$243.5	+$0.58
RN1CTR	Overavg 14.6¢	$139.5	$421.41	+$281.91	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Underavg 51.7¢	$177.2	$225.2	+$47.99	50% 11601-11716 (23317)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.7¢	$156.56	$160.5	+$3.94
└ Over leg	Overavg 15¢	$20.65	$64.7	+$44.05
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 41.7¢	$105.77	$134.31	+$28.54	50% 31780-31415 (63195)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 75¢	$155.58	$109.96	-$45.62	56% 6752-5410 (12162)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$74.91	$72.87	-$2.04	50% 10210-10096 (20306)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$50	$47.96	-$2.04
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$24.91	$24.91	+$0
LA LaarsYCTR<$100	Overavg 20¢	$20	$47	+$27	50% 3351-3286 (6637)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 64¢	$55.56	$46.01	-$9.55	61% 8819-5730 (14549)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Underavg 85¢	$42.5	$26.5	-$16	48% 4379-4828 (9207)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Overavg 46.3¢	$21.76	$22.09	+$0.33	53% 2011-1782 (3793)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Underavg 63¢	$24.41	$20.53	-$3.87	—
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 79¢	$14.18	$9.51	-$4.66	54% 2262-1899 (4161)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$815.44

Value

$872

PnL

+$56.56

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,127.58

Value

$836.16

PnL

-$291.42

Record

50%

23534-23109 (46643)

Both legs:

Under$884.6579.1¢-$292

Over$242.9246.9¢+$0.58

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$139.5

Value

$421.41

PnL

+$281.91

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Under

Invested

$177.2

Value

$225.2

PnL

+$47.99

Record

50%

11601-11716 (23317)

Both legs:

Under$156.5651.7¢+$3.94

Over$20.6515¢+$44.05

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$105.77

Value

$134.31

PnL

+$28.54

Record

50%

31780-31415 (63195)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$155.58

Value

$109.96

PnL

-$45.62

Record

56%

6752-5410 (12162)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$74.91

Value

$72.87

PnL

-$2.04

Record

50%

10210-10096 (20306)

Both legs:

Invested

$20

Value

$47

PnL

+$27

Record

50%

3351-3286 (6637)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$55.56

Value

$46.01

PnL

-$9.55

Record

61%

8819-5730 (14549)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Under

Invested

$42.5

Value

$26.5

PnL

-$16

Record

48%

4379-4828 (9207)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.76

Value

$22.09

PnL

+$0.33

Record

53%

2011-1782 (3793)

SlickRick123<$100

Under

Invested

$24.41

Value

$20.53

PnL

-$3.87

Record

—

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$14.18

Value

$9.51

PnL

-$4.66

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 92%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.