Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (64%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Coritiba FBC vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 0.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 37¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 26

Over37¢Under63¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 36.5¢

-54% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 37%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over37%

Under64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares7,410

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,748

Combined PnL-$144.64

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 36.5¢	$2.3K	$3.7K	+$1.4K	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
fxwd12345CTR	Overavg 90¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$220	69% 1448-651 (2099)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 70¢	$989.93	$866.66	-$123.28	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
└ Over leg	Overavg 70¢	$539.7	$609.09	+$69.39
└ Under leg	Underavg 36.7¢	$450.23	$257.57	-$192.67
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 81.4¢	$803.35	$779.2	-$24.14	50% 23534-23109 (46643)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 72¢	$461.74	$581.66	+$119.91	50% 10210-10096 (20306)
└ Over leg	Overavg 72¢	$384.14	$421.43	+$37.28
└ Under leg	Underavg 10.2¢	$77.6	$160.23	+$82.63
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR	Overavg 55¢	$198	$284.4	+$86.4	65% 1190-640 (1830)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540ARB<$100	Overavg 52.1¢	$162.29	$184.18	+$21.89	81% 2353-537 (2890)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.1¢	$95.98	$145.5	+$49.51
└ Under leg	Underavg 36¢	$66.3	$38.68	-$27.63
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 22.2¢	$189.91	$179.65	-$10.26	50% 11601-11716 (23317)
eskilloCTR	Overavg 44¢	$166	$171.65	+$5.66	42% 569-790 (1359)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 23.6¢	$55.33	$137.19	+$81.86	50% 31780-31415 (63195)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$11.52	$18.96	+$7.44	53% 2011-1782 (3793)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 45¢	$3.5	$4.93	+$1.43	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 16¢	$1.61	$2.11	+$0.5	61% 8819-5730 (14549)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$2,299.06

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

fxwd12345CTR

Over

Invested

$1,800

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$220

Record

69%

1448-651 (2099)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$989.93

Value

$866.66

PnL

-$123.28

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

Both legs:

Over$539.770¢+$69.39

Under$450.2336.7¢-$192.67

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$803.35

Value

$779.2

PnL

-$24.14

Record

50%

23534-23109 (46643)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$461.74

Value

$581.66

PnL

+$119.91

Record

50%

10210-10096 (20306)

Both legs:

Over$384.1472¢+$37.28

Under$77.610.2¢+$82.63

0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR

Over

Invested

$198

Value

$284.4

PnL

+$86.4

Record

65%

1190-640 (1830)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$162.29

Value

$184.18

PnL

+$21.89

Record

81%

2353-537 (2890)

Both legs:

Over$95.9852.1¢+$49.51

Under$66.336¢-$27.63

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$189.91

Value

$179.65

PnL

-$10.26

Record

50%

11601-11716 (23317)

eskilloCTR

Over

Invested

$166

Value

$171.65

PnL

+$5.66

Record

42%

569-790 (1359)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$55.33

Value

$137.19

PnL

+$81.86

Record

50%

31780-31415 (63195)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.52

Value

$18.96

PnL

+$7.44

Record

53%

2011-1782 (3793)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$3.5

Value

$4.93

PnL

+$1.43

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$1.61

Value

$2.11

PnL

+$0.5

Record

61%

8819-5730 (14549)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 37%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.