Coritiba FBC vs. Grêmio FBPA: 1st Half O/U 0.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 100¢ · $782 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 100%
$782.33
$104.01
79.7¢ → 100¢
+25% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540 | Underavg 97.7¢ | $269.57 | $262.16 | +$6.25 | 81% 2353-537 (2890) |
 RN1 | Underavg 61¢ | $168.29 | $190.4 | +$22.1 | 54% 54359-46301 (100660) |
PA pauleta23 | Underavg 60.3¢ | $107.62 | $169.44 | +$70.65 | 67% 22791-11234 (34025) |
 poshposh | Underavg 97¢ | $145.5 | $142.5 | -$3 | 61% 8819-5730 (14549) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 52.3¢ | $9.82 | $17.83 | +$8 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
Invested
$269.57
Value
$262.16
PnL
+$6.25
Record
81%
2353-537 (2890)
RN1Invested
$168.29
Value
$190.4
PnL
+$22.1
Record
54%
54359-46301 (100660)
Invested
$107.62
Value
$169.44
PnL
+$70.65
Record
67%
22791-11234 (34025)
poshposhInvested
$145.5
Value
$142.5
PnL
-$3
Record
61%
8819-5730 (14549)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$9.82
Value
$17.83
PnL
+$8
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.