Will Coritiba FBC vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw?

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 66¢ · $770 held · ended Oct 26

Yes66¢No34¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$770.24

Combined PnL

-$85.03

Smart Money Entry

41.8¢ → 65.5¢

+57% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$381.26

Total Shares1,027

Combined PnL-$49.61

No8 traders

Total Value$388.98

Total Shares687

Combined PnL-$35.42

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 35.1¢	$184.84	$195.09	+$10.25	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
FO fooooolCTR	Noavg 61.8¢	$190.2	$194.01	+$3.82	50% 10210-10096 (20306)
RN1	Yesavg 51.2¢	$210.7	$152.88	-$57.82	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Noavg 61.3¢	$112.82	$74.71	-$38.11	52% 13421-12256 (25677)
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Noavg 66.3¢	$40.04	$38.02	-$2.02	58% 1578-1158 (2736)
PO poposubCTR<$100	Noavg 61.3¢	$31.39	$32.26	+$0.87	47% 2019-2279 (4298)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 71.1¢	$21.18	$20.37	-$0.81	58% 39668-28654 (68322)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 47.8¢	$19.56	$15.16	-$4.41	50% 31780-31415 (63195)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 27.8¢	$10.84	$14.43	+$2.62	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 71¢	$13.19	$13.74	+$0.28	53% 15512-13700 (29212)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$12.06	$12.73	+$0.67	50% 23534-23109 (46643)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Yesavg 39.5¢	$3.95	$3.7	-$0.25	58% 18114-13329 (31443)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 70¢	$3.5	$3.15	-$0.13	54% 5939-5026 (10965)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$184.84

Value

$195.09

PnL

+$10.25

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

fooooolCTR

Invested

$190.2

Value

$194.01

PnL

+$3.82

Record

50%

10210-10096 (20306)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$210.7

Value

$152.88

PnL

-$57.82

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Invested

$112.82

Value

$74.71

PnL

-$38.11

Record

52%

13421-12256 (25677)

oieshfn345CTR<$100

Invested

$40.04

Value

$38.02

PnL

-$2.02

Record

58%

1578-1158 (2736)

poposubCTR<$100

Invested

$31.39

Value

$32.26

PnL

+$0.87

Record

47%

2019-2279 (4298)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$21.18

Value

$20.37

PnL

-$0.81

Record

58%

39668-28654 (68322)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.56

Value

$15.16

PnL

-$4.41

Record

50%

31780-31415 (63195)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.84

Value

$14.43

PnL

+$2.62

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$13.19

Value

$13.74

PnL

+$0.28

Record

53%

15512-13700 (29212)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$12.06

Value

$12.73

PnL

+$0.67

Record

50%

23534-23109 (46643)

BillBenter2026<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.95

Value

$3.7

PnL

-$0.25

Record

58%

18114-13329 (31443)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$0.13

Record

54%

5939-5026 (10965)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.