CD Oriente Petrolero vs. Club The Strongest: O/U 4.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 91¢ · $42 held · ended Oct 25

Over9¢Under91¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$41.51

Combined PnL

-$3.42

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over9%

Under91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$40.06

Total Shares43

Combined PnL-$0.23

Over1 trader

Total Value$1.45

Total Shares29

Combined PnL-$3.19

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1<$100	Underavg 83¢	$21.55	$22.61	+$1.07	55% 47028-39201 (86229)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Underavg 99¢	$16.01	$14.71	-$1.29	94% 15257-909 (16166)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 91¢	$2.73	$2.73	+$0	56% 1934-1543 (3477)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 16¢	$4.64	$1.45	-$3.19	50% 8091-8124 (16215)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$21.55

Value

$22.61

PnL

+$1.07

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Under

Invested

$16.01

Value

$14.71

PnL

-$1.29

Record

94%

15257-909 (16166)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$2.73

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.64

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$3.19

Record

50%

8091-8124 (16215)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.