Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-10-25?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$440.78

Smart Money Entry

82.8¢ → 100¢

+21% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares5,943

Combined PnL+$446.1

Yes3 traders

Total Value$6.32

Total Shares57

Combined PnL-$5.32

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 77.7¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$248.76	51% 18652-17998 (36650)
RN1	Noavg 93.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$13.69	55% 46138-38317 (84455)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 85.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$49.33	68% 33658-15496 (49154)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 71.9¢	$492.35	$602.79	+$110.45	58% 33858-24647 (58505)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 72¢	$82.08	$100.32	+$18.24	55% 15069-12329 (27398)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 73.1¢	$23.7	$29.03	+$5.33	46% 1596-1860 (3456)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 74.5¢	$9.42	$8.76	-$0.66	56% 1895-1497 (3392)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$8.55	$3.8	-$4.75	62% 1488-893 (2381)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 63¢	$2.43	$3.4	+$0.97	62% 23778-14304 (38082)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$3	$2.4	-$0.6	50% 8027-8078 (16105)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.09	$0.12	+$0.03	50% 9163-9084 (18247)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,927.43

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$248.76

Record

51%

18652-17998 (36650)

RN1

Invested

$1,392

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$13.69

Record

55%

46138-38317 (84455)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,286.92

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$49.33

Record

68%

33658-15496 (49154)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$492.35

Value

$602.79

PnL

+$110.45

Record

58%

33858-24647 (58505)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$82.08

Value

$100.32

PnL

+$18.24

Record

55%

15069-12329 (27398)

123987456<$100

Invested

$23.7

Value

$29.03

PnL

+$5.33

Record

46%

1596-1860 (3456)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$9.42

Value

$8.76

PnL

-$0.66

Record

56%

1895-1497 (3392)

spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.55

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$4.75

Record

62%

1488-893 (2381)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$2.43

Value

$3.4

PnL

+$0.97

Record

62%

23778-14304 (38082)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.6

Record

50%

8027-8078 (16105)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.12

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

9163-9084 (18247)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.