Will CD Oriente Petrolero win on 2026-10-25?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 25

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

-$446.43

Smart Money Entry

61.5¢ → 100¢

+63% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,763

Combined PnL+$78.82

No3 traders

Total Value$344.98

Total Shares1,292

Combined PnL-$525.25

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 54.3¢	$6.6K	$4.8K	$-1.9K	55% 46138-38317 (84455)
└ No leg	Noavg 54.3¢	$6.8K	$3.6K	$-1.9K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$74.4
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 54.4¢	$3.1K	$2.2K	-$871.08	51% 18652-17998 (36650)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57.9¢	$910.55	$1.2K	+$244.37
└ No leg	Noavg 54.4¢	$2.2K	$1.1K	$-1.1K
LU LuckyLoo	Yesavg 67¢	$915.59	$890.72	-$24.86	50% 8027-8078 (16105)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 53.5¢	$845.61	$327.87	-$517.74	68% 33658-15496 (49154)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 66¢	$188.64	$217.37	+$28.73	50% 9163-9084 (18247)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Yesavg 47¢	$123.14	$165.06	+$41.92	55% 15069-12329 (27398)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 47.2¢	$101.5	$135.45	+$33.95	58% 33858-24647 (58505)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100	Noavg 64¢	$12.01	$11.31	-$0.7	62% 1488-893 (2381)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 66.8¢	$9.49	$8.58	-$0.91	56% 1895-1497 (3392)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Noavg 63¢	$12.6	$5.8	-$6.8	64% 892-496 (1388)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$6,614.51

Value

$4.8K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

55%

46138-38317 (84455)

Both legs:

No$6,841.8354.3¢$-1.9K

Yes$1,094.6266.9¢+$74.4

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$3,085.69

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$871.08

Record

51%

18652-17998 (36650)

Both legs:

Yes$910.5557.9¢+$244.37

No$2,175.1454.4¢$-1.1K

LuckyLoo

Yes

Invested

$915.59

Value

$890.72

PnL

-$24.86

Record

50%

8027-8078 (16105)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$845.61

Value

$327.87

PnL

-$517.74

Record

68%

33658-15496 (49154)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$188.64

Value

$217.37

PnL

+$28.73

Record

50%

9163-9084 (18247)

LeLynxMalynx

Yes

Invested

$123.14

Value

$165.06

PnL

+$41.92

Record

55%

15069-12329 (27398)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$101.5

Value

$135.45

PnL

+$33.95

Record

58%

33858-24647 (58505)

spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100

Invested

$12.01

Value

$11.31

PnL

-$0.7

Record

62%

1488-893 (2381)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.49

Value

$8.58

PnL

-$0.91

Record

56%

1895-1497 (3392)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Invested

$12.6

Value

$5.8

PnL

-$6.8

Record

64%

892-496 (1388)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.