Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold CA Nacional Potosí, while the market favors Club Guabirá (59%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: CA Nacional Potosí (-1.5)
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold CA Nacional Potosí (50%) · CA Nacional Potosí at 41¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26
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Neutral
CA Nacional Potosí
2
CA Nacional Potosí 50%
2 arb excluded
$1.8K
-$150.78
Research grade
NeutralCA Nacional Potosí at 41%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Club Guabirá 59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | CA Nacional Potosíavg 64.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$134.83 | 50% 23534-23109 (46643) |
| └ Club Guabirá leg | Club Guabiráavg 42.2¢ | $419.18 | $586.35 | +$167.17 | |
| └ CA Nacional Potosí leg | CA Nacional Potosíavg 64.7¢ | $823.72 | $521.72 | -$302 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | CA Nacional Potosíavg 55.3¢ | $600.32 | $445.05 | -$155.27 | 59% 43329-29788 (73117) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Club Guabiráavg 47.6¢ | $225.2 | $273.49 | +$38.33 | 57% 27008-20057 (47065) |
| └ Club Guabirá leg | Club Guabiráavg 47.6¢ | $145.52 | $180.53 | +$35.01 | |
| └ CA Nacional Potosí leg | CA Nacional Potosíavg 48¢ | $79.68 | $92.96 | +$3.32 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Club Guabiráavg 42¢ | $6.76 | $11.25 | +$4.48 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
Invested
$1,242.9
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$134.83
Record
50%
23534-23109 (46643)
Both legs:
Invested
$600.32
Value
$445.05
PnL
-$155.27
Record
59%
43329-29788 (73117)
Invested
$225.2
Value
$273.49
PnL
+$38.33
Record
57%
27008-20057 (47065)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.76
Value
$11.25
PnL
+$4.48
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.