Will CA Nacional Potosí win on 2026-10-26?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 77¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26

Yes77¢No23¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$59.26

Smart Money Entry

74.5¢ → 76.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes77%

No24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,635

Combined PnL+$38.52

No4 traders

Total Value$344.26

Total Shares1,429

Combined PnL+$20.73

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 74.5¢	$977.2	$1.0K	+$38.59	59% 43129-29562 (72691)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 22.1¢	$303.98	$322.82	+$18.84	50% 23388-23002 (46390)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 75.4¢	$448.95	$241.51	+$4.22	58% 39436-28511 (67947)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 72¢	$53.24	$53.68	+$0.44	57% 26839-19987 (46826)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 73.9¢	$26.99	$22.27	-$4.73	55% 2195-1816 (4011)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$10.85	$15.67	+$0.2	61% 8719-5662 (14381)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$3.8	$5.49	+$1.69	63% 1003-581 (1584)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$0.28	$0.28	+$0	54% 54083-45963 (100046)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$977.2

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$38.59

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$303.98

Value

$322.82

PnL

+$18.84

Record

50%

23388-23002 (46390)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$448.95

Value

$241.51

PnL

+$4.22

Record

58%

39436-28511 (67947)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.24

Value

$53.68

PnL

+$0.44

Record

57%

26839-19987 (46826)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.99

Value

$22.27

PnL

-$4.73

Record

55%

2195-1816 (4011)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$10.85

Value

$15.67

PnL

+$0.2

Record

61%

8719-5662 (14381)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$3.8

Value

$5.49

PnL

+$1.69

Record

63%

1003-581 (1584)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.28

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

54083-45963 (100046)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.