Will FC Universitario win on 2026-10-26?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 78¢ · $929 held · ended Oct 27

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$929.17

Combined PnL

$58.53

Smart Money Entry

81.7¢ → 78.3¢

-4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$845.85

Total Shares1,029

Combined PnL-$2.71

Yes3 traders

Total Value$83.32

Total Shares491

Combined PnL+$61.24

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 78.5¢	$635.54	$648.62	+$13.08	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 91.4¢	$114.87	$99.38	-$15.49	50% 31780-31415 (63195)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$98.15	$97.85	-$0.3	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.4¢	$14.27	$67.67	+$53.4	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.2¢	$2.81	$9.46	+$6.65	54% 2262-1899 (4161)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$4.93	$6.19	+$1.2	50% 6607-6589 (13196)

RN1

Invested

$635.54

Value

$648.62

PnL

+$13.08

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

SnakeBall

Invested

$114.87

Value

$99.38

PnL

-$15.49

Record

50%

31780-31415 (63195)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$98.15

Value

$97.85

PnL

-$0.3

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.27

Value

$67.67

PnL

+$53.4

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.81

Value

$9.46

PnL

+$6.65

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.93

Value

$6.19

PnL

+$1.2

Record

50%

6607-6589 (13196)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.1%

78.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.