Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (65%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Club Bolívar vs. FC Universitario: O/U 4.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 36¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 20%
2 arb excluded
$2.7K
$23.99
Research grade
NeutralOver at 36%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Under 65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 62.7¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | -$75.07 | 51% 22118-21518 (43636) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 62.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$58.31 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 41¢ | $711.28 | $694.52 | -$16.76 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Overavg 38.4¢ | $171.93 | $178.4 | +$6.47 | 56% 24841-19200 (44041) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 38.4¢ | $89.57 | $93.2 | +$3.63 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 58¢ | $82.36 | $85.2 | +$2.84 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 36.6¢ | $148.52 | $162.38 | +$13.86 | 60% 40192-26830 (67022) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 60¢ | $137.58 | $137.66 | +$0.08 | 50% 11018-11200 (22218) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $92.8 | $96 | +$3.2 | 54% 52380-44285 (96665) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 59.4¢ | $83.62 | $89.99 | +$6.37 | 58% 37843-27569 (65412) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $13.24 | $13.71 | +$0.47 | 55% 2171-1792 (3963) |
Invested
$2,087.62
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$75.07
Record
51%
22118-21518 (43636)
Both legs:
Invested
$171.93
Value
$178.4
PnL
+$6.47
Record
56%
24841-19200 (44041)
Both legs:
Invested
$148.52
Value
$162.38
PnL
+$13.86
Record
60%
40192-26830 (67022)
Invested
$137.58
Value
$137.66
PnL
+$0.08
Record
50%
11018-11200 (22218)
RN1<$100Invested
$92.8
Value
$96
PnL
+$3.2
Record
54%
52380-44285 (96665)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$83.62
Value
$89.99
PnL
+$6.37
Record
58%
37843-27569 (65412)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$13.24
Value
$13.71
PnL
+$0.47
Record
55%
2171-1792 (3963)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.