Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (68%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Club Bolívar vs. FC Universitario: O/U 2.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 33¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 100%
2 arb excluded
$2.1K
-$1.13
33.2¢ → 32.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 33%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 76.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$12.95 | 50% 23534-23109 (46643) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 76.9¢ | $1.1K | $946.55 | -$155.62 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 26.9¢ | $539.02 | $681.69 | +$142.67 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 33.3¢ | $320.85 | $313.53 | -$7.31 | 59% 43329-29788 (73117) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 28.9¢ | $145.79 | $164.49 | +$18.7 | 54% 54359-46301 (100660) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 28.9¢ | $116.43 | $124.75 | +$8.32 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 51¢ | $29.36 | $39.73 | +$10.38 | |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 39.1¢ | $7.18 | $9.08 | +$1.9 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 22¢ | $3.19 | $7.1 | +$3.91 | 50% 11601-11716 (23317) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 20¢ | $0.25 | $0.61 | +$0.36 | 50% 31780-31415 (63195) |
Invested
$1,641.2
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$12.95
Record
50%
23534-23109 (46643)
Both legs:
Invested
$320.85
Value
$313.53
PnL
-$7.31
Record
59%
43329-29788 (73117)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$145.79
Value
$164.49
PnL
+$18.7
Record
54%
54359-46301 (100660)
Both legs:
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.18
Value
$9.08
PnL
+$1.9
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
Invested
$3.19
Value
$7.1
PnL
+$3.91
Record
50%
11601-11716 (23317)
Invested
$0.25
Value
$0.61
PnL
+$0.36
Record
50%
31780-31415 (63195)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.