Spread: Club Bolívar (-2.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold FC Universitario (67%) · FC Universitario at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
FC Universitario
3
FC Universitario 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
$17.33
49.3¢ → 53¢
+8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralFC Universitario at 53%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Club Bolívaravg 51.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$37.85 | 51% 22118-21518 (43636) |
| └ FC Universitario leg | FC Universitarioavg 51.9¢ | $546.57 | $558 | +$11.43 | |
| └ Club Bolívar leg | Club Bolívaravg 51.7¢ | $546.91 | $497.63 | -$49.28 | |
UP UpTheBlues | FC Universitarioavg 49.5¢ | $177.93 | $190.39 | +$12.47 | 60% 40192-26830 (67022) |
 VeryLucky888 | FC Universitarioavg 49¢ | $147 | $159 | +$12 | 58% 37843-27569 (65412) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Club Bolívaravg 49.4¢ | $145.32 | $138.18 | -$7.14 | 56% 24841-19200 (44041) |
Invested
$1,093.48
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$37.85
Record
51%
22118-21518 (43636)
Both legs:
Invested
$177.93
Value
$190.39
PnL
+$12.47
Record
60%
40192-26830 (67022)
VeryLucky888Invested
$147
Value
$159
PnL
+$12
Record
58%
37843-27569 (65412)
Invested
$145.32
Value
$138.18
PnL
-$7.14
Record
56%
24841-19200 (44041)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.