Spread: Club Bolívar (-1.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold FC Universitario (20%) · FC Universitario at 75¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
FC Universitario
5
FC Universitario 20%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
$228.18
Research grade
NeutralFC Universitario at 75%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | FC Universitarioavg 50¢ | $787.72 | $1.1K | +$348.86 | 59% 43329-29788 (73117) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Club Bolívaravg 44.3¢ | $985.68 | $857.75 | -$127.93 | 50% 23534-23109 (46643) |
| └ FC Universitario leg | FC Universitarioavg 41.2¢ | $239.87 | $436.84 | +$196.97 | |
| └ Club Bolívar leg | Club Bolívaravg 44.3¢ | $745.81 | $420.9 | -$324.9 | |
 0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR | Club Bolívaravg 63¢ | $315 | $235 | -$80 | 65% 1190-640 (1830) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Club Bolívaravg 69.4¢ | $123.59 | $83.66 | -$39.93 | 57% 27008-20057 (47065) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Club Bolívaravg 24¢ | $24.9 | $25.94 | +$1.04 | 50% 11601-11716 (23317) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Club Bolívaravg 68.6¢ | $5.66 | $3.88 | -$1.78 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
Invested
$787.72
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$348.86
Record
59%
43329-29788 (73117)
Invested
$985.68
Value
$857.75
PnL
-$127.93
Record
50%
23534-23109 (46643)
Both legs:
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTRInvested
$315
Value
$235
PnL
-$80
Record
65%
1190-640 (1830)
Invested
$123.59
Value
$83.66
PnL
-$39.93
Record
57%
27008-20057 (47065)
Invested
$24.9
Value
$25.94
PnL
+$1.04
Record
50%
11601-11716 (23317)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$5.66
Value
$3.88
PnL
-$1.78
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.