Club Bolívar vs. FC Universitario: 1st Half O/U 1.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 56¢ · $177 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 100%
$177.23
$19.22
49.9¢ → 56¢
+12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 56%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 47.4¢ | $83.12 | $98.27 | +$15.15 | 50% 11601-11716 (23317) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $69.43 | $73.36 | +$3.93 | 57% 27008-20057 (47065) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 53.6¢ | $5.36 | $5.6 | +$0.14 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.