Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (88%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-10-26?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 13¢ · $59 held · ends Oct 27

Yes88¢No12¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$58.91

Combined PnL

$1.38

Research grade

AvoidNo at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 88%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$47.7

Total Shares60

Combined PnL-$2.64

No4 traders

Total Value$11.21

Total Shares56

Combined PnL+$4.02

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU lukibazdonauki754<$100	Yesavg 84.4¢	$50.34	$47.7	-$2.64	58% 567-416 (983)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$3.93	$6.55	+$2.62	60% 39756-26331 (66087)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$1.15	$2.56	+$1.41	51% 21726-21125 (42851)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$1.05	$1.75	+$0.7	55% 2151-1765 (3916)
PA Parkan312CTR<$100	Noavg 29¢	$10.52	$0.35	-$0.71	76% 212-67 (279)

lukibazdonauki754<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.34

Value

$47.7

PnL

-$2.64

Record

58%

567-416 (983)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Invested

$3.93

Value

$6.55

PnL

+$2.62

Record

60%

39756-26331 (66087)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$1.15

Value

$2.56

PnL

+$1.41

Record

51%

21726-21125 (42851)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0.7

Record

55%

2151-1765 (3916)

Parkan312CTR<$100

Invested

$10.52

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$0.71

Record

76%

212-67 (279)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 88%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.1%

12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$610.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

710.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.