Club Always Ready vs. CDT Real Oruro: O/U 4.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 83¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 75%
$1.3K
$101.81
45.2¢ → 82.5¢
+82% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 83%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 39.6¢ | $555.58 | $674.58 | +$118.99 | 68% 31590-15191 (46781) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Overavg 56¢ | $299.84 | $305.19 | +$5.35 | 59% 14139-9811 (23950) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 44¢ | $217.99 | $213.04 | -$4.95 | 55% 44092-36295 (80387) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 61.4¢ | $85.61 | $69.76 | -$15.85 | 54% 13985-11704 (25689) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 45.3¢ | $29.52 | $35.54 | +$6.03 | 50% 7831-7882 (15713) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 37¢ | $6.85 | $10.09 | +$2.51 | 57% 1670-1266 (2936) |
RO rocky42019<$100 | Overavg 37¢ | $5.47 | $8.06 | +$2.59 | 42% 1476-2025 (3501) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 43¢ | $314.34 | $1.09 | -$12.85 | 58% 32113-23268 (55381) |
Invested
$555.58
Value
$674.58
PnL
+$118.99
Record
68%
31590-15191 (46781)
Invested
$299.84
Value
$305.19
PnL
+$5.35
Record
59%
14139-9811 (23950)
RN1CTRInvested
$217.99
Value
$213.04
PnL
-$4.95
Record
55%
44092-36295 (80387)
Invested
$85.61
Value
$69.76
PnL
-$15.85
Record
54%
13985-11704 (25689)
Invested
$29.52
Value
$35.54
PnL
+$6.03
Record
50%
7831-7882 (15713)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.85
Value
$10.09
PnL
+$2.51
Record
57%
1670-1266 (2936)
Invested
$5.47
Value
$8.06
PnL
+$2.59
Record
42%
1476-2025 (3501)
VeryLucky888Invested
$314.34
Value
$1.09
PnL
-$12.85
Record
58%
32113-23268 (55381)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.