Spread: Club Always Ready (-2.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Club Always Ready (50%) · Club Always Ready at 50¢ · $329 held · ended Oct 25
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Neutral
Club Always Ready
6
Club Always Ready 50%
$329.01
$8.55
50.9¢ → 50¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralClub Always Ready at 50%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Club Always Readyavg 51.3¢ | $141.94 | $146.71 | +$4.77 | 55% 44092-36295 (80387) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Club Always Readyavg 50¢ | $83.5 | $81.83 | -$1.67 | 54% 13985-11704 (25689) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Club Always Readyavg 52¢ | $39.69 | $40.04 | +$0.35 | 59% 14139-9811 (23950) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | CDT Real Oruroavg 48¢ | $23.87 | $25.36 | +$1.49 | 50% 7831-7882 (15713) |
BA Bayupati<$100 | CDT Real Oruroavg 45¢ | $18.59 | $21.06 | +$2.48 | 50% 163-161 (324) |
 HRTrading<$100 | CDT Real Oruroavg 50.8¢ | $12.21 | $13.99 | +$1.13 | 57% 1670-1266 (2936) |
RN1Invested
$141.94
Value
$146.71
PnL
+$4.77
Record
55%
44092-36295 (80387)
Invested
$83.5
Value
$81.83
PnL
-$1.67
Record
54%
13985-11704 (25689)
Invested
$39.69
Value
$40.04
PnL
+$0.35
Record
59%
14139-9811 (23950)
Invested
$23.87
Value
$25.36
PnL
+$1.49
Record
50%
7831-7882 (15713)
Invested
$18.59
Value
$21.06
PnL
+$2.48
Record
50%
163-161 (324)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$12.21
Value
$13.99
PnL
+$1.13
Record
57%
1670-1266 (2936)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.