Will CDT Real Oruro win on 2026-10-25?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$3.9K
$18.64
97.3¢ → 99.5¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 97.1¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$17.59 | 68% 31590-15191 (46781) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 98.4¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$11.85 | 50% 7831-7882 (15713) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 95¢ | $190 | $191.96 | +$1.96 | 58% 32113-23268 (55381) |
 RN1 | Noavg 90.9¢ | $100.19 | $110.45 | +$10.26 | 55% 44092-36295 (80387) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $53.76 | $53.75 | -$0.01 | 54% 13985-11704 (25689) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $13.59 | $13.71 | +$0.12 | 57% 1670-1266 (2936) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.19 | $0.77 | +$0.58 | 50% 8953-8892 (17845) |
Invested
$2,052.12
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$17.59
Record
68%
31590-15191 (46781)
Invested
$1,456.82
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$11.85
Record
50%
7831-7882 (15713)
VeryLucky888Invested
$190
Value
$191.96
PnL
+$1.96
Record
58%
32113-23268 (55381)
RN1Invested
$100.19
Value
$110.45
PnL
+$10.26
Record
55%
44092-36295 (80387)
Invested
$53.76
Value
$53.75
PnL
-$0.01
Record
54%
13985-11704 (25689)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$13.59
Value
$13.71
PnL
+$0.12
Record
57%
1670-1266 (2936)
Invested
$0.19
Value
$0.77
PnL
+$0.58
Record
50%
8953-8892 (17845)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.