Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 97¢ · $687 held · ended Oct 25

Yes97¢No3¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$687.21

Combined PnL

-$6.36

Smart Money Entry

84.5¢ → 97.3¢

+15% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$672.24

Total Shares820

Combined PnL-$18.22

No2 traders

Total Value$14.93

Total Shares382

Combined PnL+$11.86

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 85.7¢	$424.69	$381.79	-$42.9	58% 32113-23268 (55381)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 83.3¢	$236.66	$255.78	+$19.12	68% 31590-15191 (46781)
LU lukibazdonauki754<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$27.65	$26.95	+$1.93	58% 386-278 (664)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 1.2¢	$3.93	$8.6	+$4.68	55% 44092-36295 (80387)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 79.8¢	$8.51	$7.72	+$3.63	57% 1670-1266 (2936)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 12.1¢	$7.68	$6.33	+$7.19	52% 5532-5156 (10688)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$424.69

Value

$381.79

PnL

-$42.9

Record

58%

32113-23268 (55381)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$236.66

Value

$255.78

PnL

+$19.12

Record

68%

31590-15191 (46781)

lukibazdonauki754<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.65

Value

$26.95

PnL

+$1.93

Record

58%

386-278 (664)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$3.93

Value

$8.6

PnL

+$4.68

Record

55%

44092-36295 (80387)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.51

Value

$7.72

PnL

+$3.63

Record

57%

1670-1266 (2936)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$7.68

Value

$6.33

PnL

+$7.19

Record

52%

5532-5156 (10688)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.