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UpDownDownUp
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Down
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
BNB Up or Down - October 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Down 75%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$240.41
Combined PnL
-$43.14
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares78
Combined PnL-$52.99
Up1 trader
Total Value$21.36
Total Shares21
Combined PnL+$9.85
Down — 75%Up — 25%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 60.1¢ | $254.6 | $219.05 | -$35.55 | 88% 52847-6938 (59785) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.1¢ | $131.64 | $219.05 | +$87.41 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.5¢ | $122.96 | — | -$122.96 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $27.6 | — | -$27.6 | 57% 33225-25562 (58787) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Downavg 39.9¢ | $12 | — | -$12 | 56% 15191-12099 (27290) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $11.51 | $21.36 | +$9.85 | 67% 13858-6900 (20758) |
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $13.39 | — | -$13.39 | 62% 42888-25869 (68757) |
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100Invested
$254.6
Value
$219.05
PnL
-$35.55
Record
88%
52847-6938 (59785)
Both legs:
Up$131.6460.1¢+$87.41
Down$122.9660.5¢-$122.96
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$27.6
Value
—
PnL
-$27.6
Record
57%
33225-25562 (58787)
KA
Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100Invested
$12
Value
—
PnL
-$12
Record
56%
15191-12099 (27290)
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$11.51
Value
$21.36
PnL
+$9.85
Record
67%
13858-6900 (20758)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$13.39
Value
—
PnL
-$13.39
Record
62%
42888-25869 (68757)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xefc0424f...c63d80
Slug
bnb-updown-15m-1792982700